Hello,
| Monday, October 7, 2024 | STR | Final Score | Money Line | OU | Score Proj | Eff Line | Team Rating | Tm Eff Runs | Starter Rating | Bullpen Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Detroit Tigers Cleveland Guardians | L1 W1 | -130 +110 | 6 | 3.2 3.0 | 6OV -103 | +21 -30 | +4.18 +4.21 | +58 +12 | +18 +38 | |
 Kansas City Royals New York Yankees | L1 W2 | +130 -155 | 7.5 | 3.2 4.5 | 7.5OV -148 | +22 -47 | +4.45 +4.95 | +37 +20 | +8 +20 | |
The Score Proj (Score Projection) is Steve's formulated game estimator,using the team, pitcher, and bullpen ratings, plus any key injuries and ballpark factors that are applicable.
The Eff Line (Effective Line) is the estimated Line and Total calculations for the game from Steve's score projections. These should be used to find instances in which Steve's projections vary from the actual lines to spot over- or underpricing.
The Team Rating (Team lineup/defense/intangible ratings) are an overall team power rating that Steve manages on a daily basis. These do not take into account pitcher ratings, neither starters nor bullpens. Each team has both a HOME & ROAD power rating. The typical HOME RATING is about -23, and represents a home field advantage rating of about 23 cents on a betting line. In other words, using a 16 cent betting line, the average home team would be favored by -131 in the average baseball game. The average ROAD rating is about 23. As you can see, it is important to note that the more negative a power rating, the better. A negative number means a team is favored, or MINUS, on a betting line. A positive number shows an underdog, +10 for example equaling a +110 underdog.
The Tm Eff Runs (Team Effective Runs) are an overall run scoring rating for each team, or effectively a lineup potency rating. These are NOT influenced by any ballpark factors, which are calculated separately. The higher the rating, the stronger the performance of that team's offense. The average leaguewide rating for Tm Eff Runs is about 4.5-4.6 typically.
The Starter Ratings (Starting Pitcher Rating) are Steve's manually adjusted strength ratings for every Major League starting pitcher. The results of every game are reviewed and the ratings are adjusted accordingly. These are not simply statistical measurements however, as key stats, command, power, and momentum are also given significant consideration. Typically, the average MLB starting pitcher rating is about 10, with active pitchers in rotations being better than average pitchers as a whole. Otherwise, they wouldn't be in rotations. This represents about 10 cents on a betting line and these figures, combined with a pitcher's typical start length, are worked into the formula to generate the score estimates. In this case, a more positive number is better. IMPORTANT -- If you recognize a starting pitcher rating being "off" from what you'd expect, which can more often occur in overnight ratings, there is the chance that Steve has the wrong pitcher scheduled for that team. He catches 95% or more of these changes in the morning and/or later updates on game day.
The Bullpen Ratings (Bullpen Ratings) are a quantified interpretation of how Steve views each team's collective bullpen talent and performance. These are updated manually and are a reflection of key stats, arm talent, and injuries. The average bullpen power rating tends to be about 5.0, with a more positive being better. These numbers are calculated against expected usage and incorporated into the simulated scores. Steve's BULLPEN SYSTEM has wildly successful with VSiN since it's "discovery" back in 2018 and simply involves backing the team with the better bullpen rating in games over the course of the season.
Key points:
1) On injuries situations where a key line move player is listed as doubtful or out, Steve has already built the adjustments into the ratings. Where the player is questionable or probable, Steve has not, so if that player ends up missing then you need to account for those on your own.
2) Each morning, Steve goes back and makes postgame adjustments to the ratings based upon results, closing lines, and injuries for the purpose of future numbers.
3) Effective Lines are built for the home team using a 16-cent line..
How to use these Ratings
You want to compare the three different strength ratings to the actual line when it is posted.
Your job as a handicapper is to understand why the actual line and the Strength Ratings are different.
The question you want to ask yourself: Did one of the Strength Ratings identify an opportunity that the betting market missed? If so, you may want to consider that play.
Questions? Email bill@vsin.com
