Nissan Stadium

    ScoreLineOURecordATSO-U-PPFPAEST ScoreEST Line

    There were some believers in the Titans coming into the season, but I wasn't one of them. They got the cover against the Saints, but any semblance of competent QB play gets them the win in that game. They were outgained 5.5 to 4.8 yards per play and went 0-for-3 in the red zone, as Ryan Tannehill also got picked off three times.

    Derrick Henry played 48% of the snaps and Tyjae Spears played 54%, so the snap share is worth watching here, as it could create additional problems for head coach Mike Vrabel to deal with as the offense continues to suffer.

    Speaking of suffering, the Chargers defense did last week. The Kellen Moore debut was successful on offense and I'll come back to that, but the defense was truly atrocious with 536 yards allowed and 8.2 yards per play. Here's the thing, though. Of those 536 yards, 466 came through the air and 215 were from Tyreek Hill alone. The Titans don't have Tua Tagovailoa. They don't have Hill. They have an aging, ineffective quarterback and may be without DeAndre Hopkins, who had 13 of 33 targets and seven grabs for 65 yards.

    The Moore offense produced 5.7 yards per play and really ran the ball effectively with 233 rushing yards. To rack up over 450 yards with a pedestrian day from Justin Herbert (23-of-33, 229 yards, 1 TD) is a good sign for the future and a good sign for this matchup. The Saints averaged 13.3 yards per catch and had a handful of explosive pass plays of 25+ yards. Herbert should be better here.
    Chargers -3
    Me and my VSiN colleague Matt Youmans have long said (and written) that the Chargers aren't to be trusted as favorites. They again failed as chalk in their 36-34 home loss vs. the Dolphins, and here they are laying points on the road. Granted, the Titans don't have as much offensive firepower as the Dolphins, but their defense is better than Miami's and should keep this close. The best way to place this could be Titans in teasers.
    Pass for now, play at Titans +3.5 (pool play: Titans 55/45 in ATS pools -- higher at +3.5 -- but Chargers still 60/40 in SU pools).
    The Chargers are coming off a brutal 36-34 loss to the Miami Dolphins, with the defense just not being able to come up with any timely stops in the home opener. Now, Los Angeles must go on the road and face Tennessee. And this feels like a matchup that Mike Vrabel and the Titans will like quite a bit.

    The Titans aren't going to allow themselves to get into a shootout with this Chargers team, which desperately wants to open this game up and make it a high-scoring affair. Tennessee is going to pound away with Derrick Henry and try to make this a battle for who wins time of possession. And by moving the chains and keeping the clock running, the Titans defense should have enough energy to defend the explosive Chargers offense.

    These are just the types of games that it feels like the Titans can be counted on to win. I thought about taking the moneyline here, but the price isn't good enough. So, you might as well protect yourself a little by taking the points. But under Vrabel, Tennessee is 9-6 both SU and ATS when playing as a home underdog of 7 or fewer points. Meanwhile, Los Angeles is just 4-5 ATS as a road favorite under Brandon Staley. I put a lot of weight into who is coaching each team, and this feels like a massive mismatch between the guys wearing the headsets.
    Titans +3 (-115)