
| DraftKings | Power Ratings | Effective Strength | Bettor Rating | |||||||||
| Friday, December 12 | Score | Line | OU | PR | Line | Score | Proj | Edge | Score | Proj | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Stephen F Austin | - | 29.5 | 18.0 | 52.3 | 15.7 | 54.0 | ||||||
Montana ST | - | - | 42.5 | -17.7 | 34.3 | -16.3 | 38.4 | -22.7 | ||||
| Saturday, December 13 | Score | Line | OU | PR | Line | Score | Proj | Edge | Score | Proj | Edge | |
S Carolina ST | - | 18.5 | 27.7 | 52.7 | 28.3 | 53.1 | ||||||
Prairie View A&M | - | - | 16.5 | 2.0 | 25.0 | 2.7 | 24.8 | 3.5 | ||||
Villanova | - | 29.5 | 20.1 | 54.8 | 20.4 | 56.8 | ||||||
Tarleton ST | - | - | 38.5 | -12.8 | 34.7 | -14.6 | 36.5 | -16.1 | ||||
Army Black Nights | +6.0 | 37.5 | 17.7 | 36.7 | 17.7 | 41.4 | ||||||
Navy Midshipmen | -6.0 | 39.5 | 42.5 | -5.0 | 19.1 | -1.4 | 23.7 | -6.0 | ||||
S Dakota | - | 30.0 | 23.1 | 57.2 | 24.2 | 57.8 | ||||||
Montana | - | - | 37.0 | -10.7 | 34.1 | -10.9 | 33.6 | -9.4 | ||||
Illinois ST | - | 31.5 | 27.5 | 57.1 | 27.5 | 57.7 | ||||||
UC-Davis | - | - | 28.5 | -0.6 | 29.6 | -2.1 | 30.3 | -2.8 | ||||
Boise ST Broncos | +8.5 | 46.0 | 21.9 | 48.9 | 19.1 | 52.3 | ||||||
Washington Huskies | -8.5 | 51.5 | 59.0 | -12.6 | 27.0 | -5.1 | 33.2 | -14.1 | ||||
| Tuesday, December 16 | Score | Line | OU | PR | Line | Score | Proj | Edge | Score | Proj | Edge | |
Troy Trojans | -4.0 | 34.5 | 27.4 | 50.6 | 25.0 | 49.0 | ||||||
Jacksonville ST | +4.0 | 46.5 | 29.5 | 5.3 | 23.3 | 4.1 | 24.0 | 1.0 | ||||
| Wednesday, December 17 | Score | Line | OU | PR | Line | Score | Proj | Edge | Score | Proj | Edge | |
Old Dominion Monarchs | +6.5 | 45.0 | 23.5 | 53.5 | 28.9 | 62.3 | ||||||
South Florida Bulls | -6.5 | 56.5 | 53.5 | -5.7 | 30.0 | -6.5 | 33.4 | -4.5 | ||||
Louisiana Ragin Cajuns | -3.0 | 30.5 | 31.1 | 58.5 | 33.1 | 59.8 | ||||||
Delaware | +3.0 | 58.5 | 28.0 | 2.8 | 27.4 | 3.7 | 26.8 | 6.3 | ||||
| Thursday, December 18 | Score | Line | OU | PR | Line | Score | Proj | Edge | Score | Proj | Edge | |
Missouri ST | +2.5 | 29.0 | 27.3 | 56.4 | 28.6 | 54.5 | ||||||
Arkansas ST Red Wolves | -2.5 | 56.5 | 30.0 | -0.8 | 29.1 | -1.8 | 25.9 | 2.7 | ||||
| Friday, December 19 | Score | Line | OU | PR | Line | Score | Proj | Edge | Score | Proj | Edge | |
Kennesaw ST | +3.5 | 37.5 | 23.4 | 48.6 | 25.2 | 51.2 | ||||||
W Michigan Broncos | -3.5 | 49.5 | 39.5 | -2.3 | 25.3 | -1.9 | 26.1 | -0.9 | ||||
Memphis Tigers | +5.5 | 42.5 | 26.0 | 55.8 | 28.3 | 57.7 | ||||||
NC State Wolfpack | -5.5 | 58.5 | 49.0 | -7.9 | 29.8 | -3.8 | 29.5 | -1.2 | ||||
Alabama Crimson Tide | +1.5 | 63.5 | 20.0 | 42.0 | 20.5 | 44.1 | ||||||
Oklahoma Sooners | -1.5 | 40.5 | 61.0 | -1.0 | 22.0 | -2.0 | 23.7 | -3.2 | ||||
| Saturday, December 20 | Score | Line | OU | PR | Line | Score | Proj | Edge | Score | Proj | Edge | |
Miami FL Hurricanes | +4.0 | 64.0 | 23.6 | 51.3 | 24.1 | 53.4 | ||||||
Texas A&M Aggies | -4.0 | 51.5 | 64.0 | -2.3 | 27.6 | -4.0 | 29.3 | -5.2 | ||||
Tulane Green Wave | +16.5 | 47.5 | 17.6 | 55.3 | 19.4 | 56.4 | ||||||
Ole Miss Rebels | -16.5 | 56.5 | 62.5 | -17.7 | 37.8 | -20.2 | 37.0 | -17.6 | ||||
James Madison | +21.0 | 53.0 | 13.7 | 50.4 | 17.7 | 52.6 | ||||||
Oregon Ducks | -21.0 | 50.5 | 70.0 | -20.1 | 36.6 | -22.9 | 35.0 | -17.3 | ||||
| Monday, December 22 | Score | Line | OU | PR | Line | Score | Proj | Edge | Score | Proj | Edge | |
Washington ST Cougars | +4.0 | 41.5 | 23.4 | 51.2 | 24.5 | 49.4 | ||||||
Utah ST Aggies | -4.0 | 52.5 | 37.5 | 2.5 | 27.7 | -4.3 | 24.9 | -0.4 | ||||
| Tuesday, December 23 | Score | Line | OU | PR | Line | Score | Proj | Edge | Score | Proj | Edge | |
Toledo Rockets | +8.5 | 47.0 | 19.9 | 47.2 | 18.9 | 46.3 | ||||||
Louisville Cardinals | -8.5 | 45.5 | 52.5 | -8.4 | 27.3 | -7.4 | 27.5 | -8.6 | ||||
W Kentucky Hilltoppers | -4.0 | 34.5 | 29.8 | 55.5 | 27.6 | 57.1 | ||||||
Southern Miss Golden Eagles | +4.0 | 55.5 | 34.5 | 3.3 | 25.7 | 4.2 | 29.6 | -2.0 | ||||
UNLV Rebels | -4.5 | 40.0 | 32.7 | 61.0 | 30.9 | 60.3 | ||||||
Ohio Bobcats | +4.5 | 62.5 | 37.0 | 3.6 | 28.3 | 4.4 | 29.5 | 1.4 | ||||
| Wednesday, December 24 | Score | Line | OU | PR | Line | Score | Proj | Edge | Score | Proj | Edge | |
California Golden Bears | -3.0 | 41.5 | 24.9 | 53.6 | 25.8 | 52.8 | ||||||
Hawaii Rainbow Warriors | +3.0 | 55.5 | 37.5 | -2.3 | 28.8 | -3.9 | 27.1 | -1.3 | ||||
| Friday, December 26 | Score | Line | OU | PR | Line | Score | Proj | Edge | Score | Proj | Edge | |
C Michigan Chippewas | +12.5 | 31.0 | 18.6 | 46.2 | 13.4 | 44.6 | ||||||
Northwestern Wildcats | -12.5 | 43.5 | 48.0 | -17.8 | 27.6 | -9.1 | 31.2 | -17.8 | ||||
New Mexico Lobos | +3.0 | 40.5 | 22.7 | 47.4 | 21.0 | 47.6 | ||||||
Minnesota Golden Gophers | -3.0 | 47.5 | 46.5 | -5.5 | 24.7 | -2.0 | 26.7 | -5.7 | ||||
Florida Intl Golden Panthers | +8.5 | 32.0 | 21.9 | 55.0 | 22.1 | 59.9 | ||||||
Texas-San Antonio Roadrunners | -8.5 | 59.5 | 40.0 | -10.1 | 33.1 | -11.2 | 37.9 | -15.8 | ||||
| Saturday, December 27 | Score | Line | OU | PR | Line | Score | Proj | Edge | Score | Proj | Edge | |
Pittsburgh Panthers | -6.0 | 52.5 | 32.5 | 60.4 | 35.2 | 59.3 | ||||||
East Carolina Pirates | +6.0 | 58.5 | 45.5 | 5.7 | 28.0 | 4.5 | 24.2 | 11.0 | ||||
Penn ST Nittany Lions | +3.0 | 59.0 | 25.9 | 52.4 | 24.0 | 50.1 | ||||||
Clemson Tigers | -3.0 | 48.5 | 55.5 | 1.7 | 26.6 | -0.7 | 26.1 | -2.1 | ||||
Connecticut Huskies | +3.0 | 40.5 | 23.6 | 49.9 | 25.6 | 50.5 | ||||||
Army Black Nights | -3.0 | 50.5 | 37.5 | -0.1 | 26.3 | -2.8 | 25.0 | 0.6 | ||||
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets | +3.0 | 52.0 | 27.3 | 56.6 | 26.2 | 54.1 | ||||||
BYU Cougars | -3.0 | 56.5 | 56.5 | -4.4 | 29.3 | -1.9 | 27.9 | -1.7 | ||||
Miami OH RedHawks | +3.5 | 37.0 | 21.1 | 44.4 | 21.0 | 42.2 | ||||||
Fresno ST Bulldogs | -3.5 | 42.5 | 36.5 | -1.0 | 23.4 | -2.3 | 21.3 | -0.3 | ||||
North Texas Mean Green | -3.5 | 48.5 | 29.2 | 55.0 | 31.8 | 56.5 | ||||||
San Diego ST Aztecs | +3.5 | 55.5 | 41.5 | 4.5 | 25.8 | 3.4 | 24.8 | 7.0 | ||||
Virginia Cavaliers | +7.0 | 49.5 | 23.6 | 52.1 | 18.7 | 44.0 | ||||||
Missouri Tigers | -7.0 | 48.5 | 59.0 | -9.5 | 28.5 | -4.9 | 25.3 | -6.6 | ||||
LSU Tigers | +3.0 | 57.0 | 20.9 | 44.3 | 23.2 | 42.8 | ||||||
Houston Cougars | -3.0 | 41.5 | 48.0 | 4.9 | 23.4 | -2.4 | 19.6 | 3.6 | ||||
| Monday, December 29 | Score | Line | OU | PR | Line | Score | Proj | Edge | Score | Proj | Edge | |
Georgia Southern Eagles | - | 30.0 | 31.1 | 59.8 | 29.3 | 58.3 | ||||||
Appalachian ST Mountaineers | - | - | 28.5 | 3.8 | 28.7 | 2.4 | 29.1 | 0.2 | ||||
| Tuesday, December 30 | Score | Line | OU | PR | Line | Score | Proj | Edge | Score | Proj | Edge | |
Coastal Carolina Chanticleers | +7.0 | 26.5 | 22.4 | 51.0 | 24.6 | 52.7 | ||||||
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs | -7.0 | 50.5 | 34.0 | -11.7 | 28.6 | -6.2 | 28.2 | -3.6 | ||||
Tennessee Volunteers | -5.5 | 60.0 | 32.7 | 61.5 | 34.0 | 62.0 | ||||||
Illinois Fighting Illini | +5.5 | 61.5 | 52.5 | 6.0 | 28.7 | 4.0 | 28.1 | 5.9 | ||||
USC Trojans | -6.0 | 60.5 | 31.5 | 58.2 | 36.5 | 62.5 | ||||||
TCU horned Frogs | +6.0 | 59.5 | 52.0 | 8.0 | 26.7 | 4.8 | 26.1 | 10.4 | ||||
| Wednesday, December 31 | Score | Line | OU | PR | Line | Score | Proj | Edge | Score | Proj | Edge | |
Iowa Hawkies | +4.0 | 58.5 | 22.5 | 49.5 | 24.3 | 50.1 | ||||||
Vanderbilt Commodores | -4.0 | 49.5 | 63.0 | -4.3 | 27.0 | -4.5 | 25.9 | -1.6 | ||||
Arizona ST Sun Devils | +1.5 | 50.0 | 24.6 | 51.7 | 26.9 | 54.8 | ||||||
Duke Blue Devils | -1.5 | 49.5 | 50.0 | -4.1 | 27.0 | -2.4 | 28.0 | -1.1 | ||||
Michigan Wolverines | +4.5 | 57.5 | 22.3 | 45.1 | 22.2 | 45.0 | ||||||
Texas Longhorns | -4.5 | 45.5 | 62.5 | -3.9 | 22.8 | -0.5 | 22.8 | -0.6 | ||||
Nebraska Cornhuskers | +14.5 | 50.5 | 19.4 | 51.1 | 19.4 | 53.9 | ||||||
Utah Utes | -14.5 | 49.5 | 60.5 | -13.1 | 31.6 | -12.2 | 34.6 | -15.2 | ||||
| Friday, January 2 | Score | Line | OU | PR | Line | Score | Proj | Edge | Score | Proj | Edge | |
Rice Owls | +10.5 | 24.5 | 23.1 | 56.1 | 22.7 | 57.8 | ||||||
Texas ST Bobcats | -10.5 | 59.5 | 40.0 | -15.5 | 33.0 | -9.9 | 35.2 | -12.5 | ||||
Navy Midshipmen | +1.5 | 42.5 | 26.6 | 54.8 | 22.3 | 56.7 | ||||||
Cincinnati Bearcats | -1.5 | 55.5 | 49.0 | -5.4 | 28.2 | -1.5 | 34.4 | -12.1 | ||||
Wake Forest Demon Deacons | +3.0 | 44.5 | 28.1 | 58.4 | 23.6 | 54.7 | ||||||
Mississippi ST Bulldogs | -3.0 | 56.5 | 48.5 | -3.8 | 30.3 | -2.2 | 31.2 | -7.6 | ||||
Arizona Wildcats | -3.0 | 55.5 | 27.8 | 51.7 | 24.5 | 52.3 | ||||||
SMU Mustangs | +3.0 | 52.5 | 53.5 | 2.4 | 24.0 | 3.8 | 27.9 | -3.4 | ||||
The Power Ratings (PR) are Steve's own manually adjusted ratings updated after every game based upon analysis of live action and box scores. The Power Rating line is reflective of each team's rating and factors in home-field advantage as well as any injury or situational adjustments.
The Effective Strength Ratings (EffStr or ES) are purely statistical ratings, using the teams' key stats against schedule strength and their previous opponents' averages. These are also adjusted for any key injuries the team had endured or faced against.
The Bettors Ratings (BtrRtg) are a quantified interpretation of how bettors perceive teams based upon how lines of recent games have moved and closed.
Key points:
1) On injuries situations where a key line move player is listed as doubtful or out, Steve has already built the adjustments into the ratings. Where the player is questionable or probable, Steve has not, so if that player ends up missing then you need to account for those on your own.
2) Each morning, Steve goes back and makes postgame adjustments to the ratings based upon results, closing lines, and injuries for the purpose of future numbers.
3) Point spread projections (proj) are built for the home team.
How to use these Ratings:
You want to compare the three different strength ratings to the actual line when it is posted.
If there is a difference of 3 points or more between a point spread generated by the Rating vs. the actual line at DraftKings Sportsbook, we have marked the game with an star.
The question you want to ask yourself: Did one of the Strength Ratings identify an opportunity that the betting market missed? If so, you may want to consider that play.
Questions? Email bill@vsin.com