Zach Thornton is set up for a strong outing at Citi Field, where our JOLT model projects him at just 1.54 earned runs against a line of 2.5 -- a gap that's hard to ignore. That projection translates to a 79.8% Poisson probability of staying Under, driven largely by favorable matchup history against this opposing lineup.

A 25.6% JOLT edge at -118 juice is the kind of number that moves sharp money, and the contextual factors here reinforce the model's lean -- Citi Field plays as a pitcher-friendly environment and Thornton's profile against this particular order suggests limited hard contact opportunities. Fade the earned runs, back the arm.