Andrew Alvarez looks like a strong lean for the shutdown side tonight at Nationals Park, where VSiN JOLT projects him at just 0.86 earned runs against a line of 1.5 -- a 34.2% edge that's hard to ignore at plus money. The Poisson model puts the UNDER probability at a compelling 78.6%, meaning the math is firmly in your corner before you even factor in matchup context.

Alvarez's profile against this opposing lineup supports the projection, and with the number sitting at 1.5, he essentially gets to walk off clean even if he surrenders a single earned run -- giving this play significant cushion. At +125, you're getting paid to back a number the model says should cash nearly four out of five times.