Jacob Lopez draws a tough assignment at Sutter Health Park, and the numbers make a compelling case that he won't navigate deep into this one. VSiN JOLT projects him at just 12.80 outs recorded against a line of 14.5, a gap significant enough to generate a 26.6% edge on the Under.

That projection translates to a 69.5% Poisson probability of cashing the Under, which is the kind of mathematical confidence that sharp bettors build their tickets around. The matchup history against this opposing lineup is doing Lopez no favors, and at +133, the market is essentially offering plus money on what JOLT sees as a likely outcome.