Drew Rasmussen draws a tough assignment heading into Dodger Stadium, and the numbers suggest he'll struggle to push deep into this one. VSiN Prop Projections have him pegged at just 13.5 outs recorded against a line sitting at 16.5, generating a 22.8% Poisson edge on the Under -- that's a meaningful gap that deserves attention.

The hit rate here is consistent enough to build a case: the Under has cashed at a 60% clip over his last five and last ten starts, with the season-long rate holding at 54%. Even his rolling averages -- 18.2 L5, 17.1 L10, and 16.8 on the season -- are flirting with this number rather than comfortably clearing it, which tells you the ceiling isn't as high as the line implies.

Facing the Dodgers on the road at Dodger Stadium as a moderate-confidence projection, Rasmussen doesn't need to implode for this Under to hit -- he just needs to be exactly who the data says he is.