Hello,
| DraftKings | Power Ratings | Effective Strength | Bettor Rating | |||||||||
| Wednesday, November 20 | Final | Line | OU | Rest | PR | Line | Score | Proj | Edge | Score | Proj | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Charleston | 76 | -12.0 | 2 | 74.5 | 78.9 | 147.8 | 80.7 | 147.1 | ||||
 The Citadel | 61 | +12.0 | 144.5 | 2 | 61.0 | 11.2 | 68.9 | 10.1 | 66.5 | 14.2 | ||
Pro Picks at a Glance - ( Joe Ceraulo ) Charleston (-10.5) at The Citadel | ||||||||||||
 Yale | 86 | -9.0 | 3 | 75.5 | 77.8 | 146.0 | 79.2 | 148.3 | ||||
 Stony Brook | 64 | +9.0 | 143.0 | 3 | 63.0 | 9.1 | 68.3 | 9.5 | 69.2 | 10.0 | ||
 Siena | 55 | +27.0 | 3 | 63.5 | 59.4 | 145.2 | 62.0 | 149.0 | ||||
 Xavier | 80 | -27.0 | 144.0 | 3 | 83.0 | -22.9 | 85.8 | -26.4 | 87.0 | -25.0 | ||
 Elon | 75 | -2.0 | 4 | 64.5 | 70.6 | 141.9 | 72.7 | 144.9 | ||||
 N Illinois | 48 | +2.0 | 144.0 | 3 | 62.0 | -0.4 | 71.3 | -0.7 | 72.2 | 0.5 | ||
 Detroit | 70 | +11.5 | 3 | 58.0 | 67.7 | 146.1 | 68.8 | 151.6 | ||||
 Ball ST | 59 | -11.5 | 143.5 | 3 | 67.0 | -13.2 | 78.5 | -10.8 | 82.8 | -14.0 | ||
 IPFW | 89 | +17.0 | 3 | 74.0 | 71.6 | 158.4 | 73.0 | 158.9 | ||||
 Penn ST | 102 | -17.0 | 159.5 | 4 | 85.5 | -14.6 | 86.8 | -15.2 | 86.0 | -13.0 | ||
 Iona | 43 | +12.0 | 4 | 68.0 | 67.3 | 146.5 | 66.8 | 147.2 | ||||
 West Virginia | 86 | -12.0 | 147.0 | 4 | 78.0 | -12.5 | 79.2 | -12.0 | 80.4 | -13.6 | ||
 New Mexico ST | 53 | +15.5 | 5 | 70.5 | 62.4 | 140.8 | 62.5 | 140.2 | ||||
 Dayton | 74 | -15.5 | 142.5 | 3 | 82.0 | -15.6 | 78.4 | -16.0 | 77.7 | -15.2 | ||
 S Dakota | 80 | -2.5 | 5 | 65.5 | 78.3 | 155.1 | 79.5 | 158.7 | ||||
 W Michigan | 76 | +2.5 | 155.5 | 2 | 61.5 | 0.6 | 76.9 | 1.4 | 79.2 | 0.3 | ||
 Southern Miss | 76 | +6.5 | 7 | 67.5 | 73.6 | 152.8 | 73.7 | 151.9 | ||||
 S Dakota ST | 101 | -6.5 | 153.0 | 1 | 69.0 | -5.9 | 79.2 | -5.6 | 78.3 | -4.6 | ||
 Ark-Little Rock | 71 | +12.0 | 3 | 66.5 | 69.5 | 151.8 | 72.4 | 155.3 | ||||
 Tulsa | 57 | -12.0 | 150.5 | 3 | 71.5 | -11.0 | 82.3 | -12.8 | 82.9 | -10.5 | ||
 Mt St Marys | 51 | +14.0 | 3 | 64.0 | 66.0 | 144.2 | 65.5 | 143.2 | ||||
 Georgetown | 79 | -14.0 | 142.5 | 3 | 73.5 | -12.0 | 78.1 | -12.1 | 77.8 | -12.3 | ||
 Cal Poly SLO | 89 | +16.0 | 2 | 63.5 | 65.8 | 152.9 | 65.9 | 152.9 | ||||
 Arizona ST | 93 | -16.0 | 154.5 | 2 | 79.5 | -20.0 | 87.0 | -21.2 | 87.0 | -21.1 | ||
 Illinois | 87 | +9.0 | 6 | 85.5 | 76.6 | 161.3 | 78.0 | 161.9 | ||||
 Alabama | 100 | -9.0 | 168.0 | 4 | 89.0 | -6.1 | 84.7 | -8.1 | 84.0 | -6.0 | ||
 UC-Davis | 75 | +17.0 | 2 | 70.0 | 71.3 | 155.3 | 69.9 | 151.1 | ||||
 Grand Canyon | 68 | -17.0 | 152.0 | 5 | 78.5 | -11.1 | 84.1 | -12.8 | 81.3 | -11.4 | ||
 Long Beach ST | 41 | +34.0 | 3 | 63.5 | 58.4 | 152.6 | 58.9 | 153.0 | ||||
 Gonzaga | 84 | -34.0 | 151.5 | 1 | 94.0 | -33.7 | 94.2 | -35.8 | 94.2 | -35.3 | ||
 San Jose ST | 68 | +17.0 | 2 | 64.5 | 63.6 | 141.3 | 62.3 | 142.0 | ||||
 USC | 82 | -17.0 | 140.5 | 2 | 79.0 | -15.9 | 77.6 | -14.0 | 79.7 | -17.4 | ||
 Pepperdine | 59 | +14.0 | 3 | 65.5 | 67.0 | 148.3 | 66.8 | 149.1 | ||||
 UNLV | 80 | -14.0 | 147.0 | 5 | 76.0 | -14.7 | 81.3 | -14.4 | 82.4 | -15.6 | ||
 Texas-El Paso | 79 | +5.0 | 7 | 69.0 | 69.8 | 148.6 | 66.2 | 142.9 | ||||
 UC-Santa Barbara | 76 | -5.0 | 145.5 | 2 | 74.0 | -8.2 | 78.8 | -9.0 | 76.7 | -10.5 | ||
 N Colorado | 79 | +4.5 | 1 | 70.0 | 70.9 | 147.9 | 72.2 | 147.4 | ||||
 California Baptist | 68 | -4.5 | 151.0 | 4 | 69.0 | -2.2 | 77.0 | -6.1 | 75.2 | -3.0 | ||
 Idaho ST | 70 | +24.5 | 1 | 66.0 | 52.8 | 130.3 | 51.7 | 130.2 | ||||
 UCLA | 84 | -24.5 | 131.0 | 4 | 88.0 | -25.1 | 77.5 | -24.7 | 78.6 | -26.9 | ||
 Merrimack | 63 | +20.0 | 2 | 67.0 | 56.5 | 131.1 | 58.3 | 131.7 | ||||
 Rutgers | 74 | -20.0 | 134.5 | 4 | 80.5 | -14.7 | 74.6 | -18.1 | 73.5 | -15.2 | ||
 Lafayette | 72 | +15.0 | 3 | 64.5 | 65.4 | 145.9 | 63.5 | 141.5 | ||||
 Rhode Island | 86 | -15.0 | 147.0 | 7 | 75.0 | -13.1 | 80.5 | -15.1 | 78.0 | -14.5 | ||
 Austin Peay | 58 | +1.0 | 2 | 66.0 | 69.6 | 138.5 | 69.2 | 138.5 | ||||
 Morehead ST | 63 | -1.0 | 138.0 | 5 | 63.0 | -0.6 | 68.9 | 0.6 | 69.4 | -0.2 | ||
 Columbia | 80 | -11.0 | 3 | 69.0 | 79.7 | 151.9 | 79.8 | 151.7 | ||||
 LIU-Brooklyn | 72 | +11.0 | 152.5 | 4 | 60.0 | 5.9 | 72.3 | 7.4 | 71.9 | 7.9 | ||
 Maine | 66 | +8.5 | 4 | 66.0 | 64.1 | 134.3 | 62.5 | 134.7 | ||||
 Richmond | 70 | -8.5 | 129.5 | 3 | 69.5 | -7.3 | 70.2 | -6.1 | 72.3 | -9.8 | ||
 Jacksonville | 74 | +14.5 | 5 | 68.0 | 60.9 | 135.3 | 62.6 | 136.4 | ||||
 Virginia Tech | 64 | -14.5 | 135.0 | 4 | 75.0 | -11.3 | 74.4 | -13.5 | 73.8 | -11.2 | ||
 Coppin ST | 55 | +27.5 | 2 | 54.0 | 53.2 | 133.4 | 52.5 | 133.6 | ||||
 George Mason | 93 | -27.5 | 134.0 | 3 | 77.5 | -26.6 | 80.1 | -26.9 | 81.2 | -28.7 | ||
 Abilene CHR | 78 | +4.5 | 3 | 68.5 | 76.1 | 155.9 | 76.1 | 153.9 | ||||
 Kennesaw ST | 84 | -4.5 | 157.0 | 3 | 65.5 | -1.1 | 79.8 | -3.7 | 77.9 | -1.8 | ||
 Morgan ST | 83 | +6.5 | 3 | 58.5 | 74.3 | 158.4 | 74.2 | 158.0 | ||||
 N Carolina A&T | 86 | -6.5 | 159.5 | 2 | 63.0 | -8.9 | 84.1 | -9.9 | 83.8 | -9.6 | ||
 Fairleigh Dickinson | 70 | +6.5 | 2 | 58.0 | 70.2 | 148.7 | 74.7 | 158.4 | ||||
 Army | 84 | -6.5 | 148.5 | 4 | 64.0 | -9.0 | 78.4 | -8.2 | 83.7 | -9.0 | ||
 Towson | 70 | -3.0 | 3 | 73.0 | 69.3 | 135.5 | 70.1 | 135.9 | ||||
 Nicholls ST | 64 | +3.0 | 136.5 | 4 | 68.0 | 2.5 | 66.2 | 3.1 | 65.9 | 4.2 | ||
 Jackson ST | 62 | +15.0 | 3 | 60.0 | 67.6 | 151.5 | 67.1 | 151.9 | ||||
 W Kentucky | 79 | -15.0 | 152.5 | 2 | 74.0 | -17.2 | 83.8 | -16.2 | 84.9 | -17.8 | ||
 Southern U | 54 | +25.5 | 2 | 63.5 | 59.8 | 142.5 | 57.7 | 142.6 | ||||
 Texas A&M | 71 | -25.5 | 144.5 | 4 | 87.0 | -25.1 | 82.6 | -22.8 | 85.0 | -27.3 | ||
 MD-E Shore | 61 | +25.0 | 1 | 55.0 | 58.8 | 143.9 | 60.2 | 148.3 | ||||
 Murray ST | 79 | -25.0 | 148.5 | 3 | 77.5 | -25.7 | 85.1 | -26.3 | 88.2 | -28.0 | ||
 Prairie View A&M | 83 | +14.0 | 1 | 53.5 | 70.1 | 155.4 | 71.4 | 156.7 | ||||
 Fresno ST | 94 | -14.0 | 156.0 | 3 | 63.5 | -13.9 | 85.2 | -15.1 | 85.4 | -14.0 | ||
 Norfolk ST | 63 | +20.5 | 3 | 67.5 | 60.1 | 140.5 | 62.8 | 142.3 | ||||
 Stanford | 70 | -20.5 | 142.0 | 2 | 79.5 | -15.5 | 80.4 | -20.4 | 79.6 | -16.8 | ||
The Power Ratings (PR) are Steve's own manually adjusted ratings updated after every game based upon analysis of live action and box scores. The Power Rating line is reflective of each team's rating and factors in home-field advantage as well as any injury or situational adjustments.
The Effective Strength Ratings (EffStr or ES) are purely statistical ratings, using the teams' key stats against schedule strength and their previous opponents' averages. These are also adjusted for any key injuries the team had endured or faced against.
The Bettors Ratings (BtrRtg) are a quantified interpretation of how bettors perceive teams based upon how lines of recent games have moved and closed.
Key points:
1) On injuries situations where a key line move player is listed as doubtful or out, Steve has already built the adjustments into the ratings. Where the player is questionable or probable, Steve has not, so if that player ends up missing then you need to account for those on your own.
2) Each morning, Steve goes back and makes postgame adjustments to the ratings based upon results, closing lines, and injuries for the purpose of future numbers.
3) Point spread projections (proj) are built for the home team.
How to use these Ratings:
You want to compare the three different strength ratings to the actual line when it is posted.
If there is a difference of 3 points or more between a point spread generated by the Rating vs. the actual line at DraftKings Sportsbook, we have marked the game with an star.
The question you want to ask yourself: Did one of the Strength Ratings identify an opportunity that the betting market missed? If so, you may want to consider that play.
Questions? Email bill@vsin.com
