Anthony Edwards presents compelling value on the under despite his solid season-long average of 36.6 PRA, as recent form tells a different story with the Timberwolves guard averaging just 24.8 over his last five games. The VSiN Prop Projections model identifies a massive 40.4% Poisson edge on the under, projecting Edwards at just 28.0 combined points, rebounds and assists against this inflated 36.5 number.

While Edwards has hit the under at a 59% clip this season, the recent trend is even more pronounced with his declining production over the past two weeks coinciding with Minnesota's evolving offensive flow. The home matchup against San Antonio shouldn't provide the pace boost needed to elevate Edwards back to his season norms, making this under a sharp contrarian play despite the speculative confidence rating.