Jared McCain presents a compelling fade opportunity tonight with our projections landing at just 4.6 points against this inflated 15.5 number. The rookie guard has been inconsistent in his limited role, averaging just 10.6 points per game on the season and showing declining production with 12.1 points over his last 10 outings.

While the under hit rates appear modest at 27% on the season, our 48.8% Poisson edge suggests the market is significantly overvaluing McCain's scoring ceiling in what projects as a difficult road spot against San Antonio. The projection gap of nearly 11 points creates substantial value on this under despite the speculative nature of the play.