Jared McCain presents a compelling underdog scenario tonight with our projections showing him at just 3.8 points against an inflated line of 11.5, generating a massive 48.5% Poisson edge on the under. The rookie's recent hot streak averaging 12.0 points over his last five games appears to be baked into this number, but his longer-term averages of 10.0 points over 10 games and 8.5 points on the season suggest regression is due.

The under has cashed at a 60% clip in his last five outings, and facing Oklahoma City's elite defense at home creates an additional headwind for McCain's scoring output. With the Thunder allowing the fewest points per game to opposing guards, this line feels like a prime fade spot on a player whose season-long production doesn't support this elevated number.