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Warren Mcguirk Alumni Stadium

FINAL	Score	Line	OU	Record	ATS	O-U-P	PF	PA	EST Score	EST Line
Toledo	41	-19		4-1	2-3-0	4-1-0	40.8	22.8	41	59.6
Massachusetts	24	+19	56	1-5	2-4-0	5-1-0	26.5	39.2	18.5	22.5

2023 Recent Results

Wk	Date	Opponent	ML	Line	OU	Score	SU	ATS	OU	Handle	Bets	Handle	Bets	Handle	Bets
Toledo			DraftKings			Results				Money Line		Spread		OVER Total
5	Sep 30	VS N Illinois	-625	-14	48.5	35-33	W	L	O	75%	98%	57%	77%	62%	75%
4	Sep 23	VS W Michigan	-1350	-21.5	51.5	49-31	W	L	O	78%	94%	53%	54%	46%	67%
3	Sep 16	VS San Jose ST	-340	-8.5	56.5	21-17	W	L	U	60%	92%	76%	66%	66%	77%
2	Sep 9	VS Texas Southern	-	-40	63	71-3	W	W	O	0%	0%	64%	43%	87%	50%
1	Sep 2	at Illinois	+235	+7.5	45.5	28-30	L	W	O	31%	13%	56%	45%	28%	58%

2023 Recent Results

Wk	Date	Opponent	ML	Line	OU	Score	SU	ATS	OU	Handle	Bets	Handle	Bets	Handle	Bets
Massachusetts			DraftKings			Results				Money Line		Spread		OVER Total
5	Sep 30	VS Arkansas ST	-148	-2.5	56	28-52	L	L	O	85%	59%	93%	75%	93%	42%
4	Sep 23	VS New Mexico	-148	-3	48.5	31-34	L	L	O	62%	71%	60%	64%	37%	32%
3	Sep 16	at E Michigan	+240	+7.5	50.5	17-19	L	W	U	21%	7%	69%	38%	50%	55%
2	Sep 9	VS Miami OH	+215	+7	44	28-41	L	L	O	37%	14%	61%	45%	48%	66%
1	Sep 2	at Auburn	-	+35	52	14-59	L	L	O	0%	0%	48%	47%	92%	77%
1	Aug 26	at New Mexico ST	+225	+7	45.5	41-30	W	W	O	13%	9%	35%	28%	48%	62%

Last 5 Head to Head Results

Date	Road/Home	Score	Line	ML	OU	SU	ATS	F/D	H/A	OU
2022 Sep 10	Massachusetts Minutemen Toledo Rockets	10 55	+28 -28	+2625 -5500	49	TOL	TOL	FAV	Home	Over
2021 Oct 2	Toledo Rockets Massachusetts Minutemen	45 7	-26.5 +26.5	-3500 +1750	56.5	TOL	TOL	FAV	Road	Under
2015 Oct 24	Toledo Rockets Massachusetts Minutemen	51 35	-14.5 +14.5	-600 +460	61	TOL	TOL	FAV	Road	Over
2014 Oct 25	Massachusetts Minutemen Toledo Rockets	35 42	+17 -17	+600 -825	69.5	TOL	MASS	DOG	Road	Over

Statistic Breakdown

Offensive Statistics

TOL	Statistic	MASS	Edge	Margin
5	Games	6	MASS	1
40.8	Points Scored	26.5	TOL	14.3
240.4	Passing Yards	250.7	MASS	10.3
13.4	PYPC	13.2	TOL	0.2
8.8	PYPA	8.4	TOL	0.5
66.2	Completion PCT	63.3	TOL	2.9
224.6	Rushing Yards	138.7	TOL	85.9
5.4	RYPA	4.2	TOL	1.2
65.6	PenaltyYards	84.5	TOL	18.9
1.8	Turnovers	1.5	MASS	0.3

Defensive Statistics

TOL	Statistic	MASS	Edge	Margin
5	Games	6	TOL	1
22.8	Points Scored	39.2	TOL	16.4
191.4	Passing Yards	247.5	TOL	56.1
11.3	PYPC	17.9	TOL	6.6
6.6	PYPA	10.5	TOL	3.9
58.6	Completion PCT	58.9	TOL	0.3
152.0	Rushing Yards	194.3	TOL	42.3
4.0	RYPA	5.3	TOL	1.3
65.8	PenaltyYards	65.7	TOL	0.1
1.8	Turnovers	1.2	TOL	0.6

Statistic Breakdown

Offensive Statistics

TOL	Statistic	MASS	Edge	Margin
1	Games	3	MASS	2
28.0	Points Scored	29.0	MASS	1.0
230.0	Passing Yards	270.3	MASS	40.3
11.5	PYPC	12.1	MASS	0.6
6.2	PYPA	8.3	MASS	2.1
54.1	Completion PCT	68.4	MASS	14.3
186.0	Rushing Yards	123.7	TOL	62.3
4.4	RYPA	3.7	TOL	0.7
40.0	PenaltyYards	94.7	TOL	54.7
1.0	Turnovers	1.0	-	0.0

Defensive Statistics

TOL	Statistic	MASS	Edge	Margin
1	Games	3	TOL	2
30.0	Points Scored	42.3	TOL	12.3
211.0	Passing Yards	292.3	TOL	81.3
11.7	PYPC	21.4	TOL	9.7
8.1	PYPA	13.7	TOL	5.6
69.2	Completion PCT	64.1	MASS	5.2
163.0	Rushing Yards	151.0	MASS	12.0
4.7	RYPA	4.0	MASS	0.7
100.0	PenaltyYards	76.3	TOL	23.7
1.0	Turnovers	1.0	-	0.0

Statistic Breakdown

Offensive Statistics

TOL	Statistic	MASS	Edge	Margin
10	Games	10	-	0
31.9	Points Scored	21.2	TOL	10.7
240.4	Passing Yards	227.7	TOL	12.7
13.0	PYPC	12.7	TOL	0.3
7.6	PYPA	7.5	TOL	0.1
58.5	Completion PCT	58.7	MASS	0.1
192.0	Rushing Yards	128.8	TOL	63.2
4.5	RYPA	3.7	TOL	0.8
65.0	PenaltyYards	69.0	TOL	4.0
1.8	Turnovers	1.8	-	0.0

Defensive Statistics

TOL	Statistic	MASS	Edge	Margin
10	Games	10	-	0
22.3	Points Scored	36.1	TOL	13.8
181.4	Passing Yards	194.5	TOL	13.1
11.7	PYPC	17.4	TOL	5.7
6.3	PYPA	9.9	TOL	3.6
53.6	Completion PCT	57.1	TOL	3.5
134.3	Rushing Yards	211.5	TOL	77.2
3.8	RYPA	5.5	TOL	1.7
64.4	PenaltyYards	55.1	TOL	9.3
1.4	Turnovers	1.2	TOL	0.2

Statistic Breakdown

Offensive Statistics

TOL	Statistic	MASS	Edge	Margin
4	Games	4	-	0
48.3	Points Scored	21.8	TOL	26.5
247.3	Passing Yards	211.0	TOL	36.3
12.7	PYPC	11.4	TOL	1.3
7.2	PYPA	5.7	TOL	1.5
56.9	Completion PCT	50.0	TOL	6.9
254.3	Rushing Yards	107.0	TOL	147.3
5.4	RYPA	3.5	TOL	2.0
66.8	PenaltyYards	101.3	TOL	34.5
1.3	Turnovers	2.0	TOL	0.8

Betting Splits

Saturday,October 7	Spread	Handle	Bets	Total	Handle	Bets	Money	Handle	Bets
Toledo Massachusetts	-19 +19	78% 22%	72% 28%	56 56	42% 58%	65% 35%	-1200 +750	90% 10%	96% 4%

Makinen Weekly Ratings

Saturday, October 7	Score	Line	OU	PR	Line	Score	Proj	Score	Proj
		DraftKings			Power Ratings		Effective Strength		Bettor Rating
Toledo Rockets	41	-19.0		41.5		41.0	59.6	37.7	59.6
Massachusetts Minutemen	24	+19.0	56.0	21.5	20.1	18.5	22.5	21.9	15.8

Don't undervalue a team's coaching when handicapping NFL Win totals. The schedule is important, but a good coach can put a team over the top.

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